Research And Policy In Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD)
Fogarty International Center, Bethesda, MD
Mathematical models of pathogen transmission and statistical models of infectious disease data for:
1) Identifying climatic drivers and other risk factors of disease in animal reservoirs and at the human-animal interface.
2) Prediction of disease incidence, multi-strain dynamics, and the emergence of novel strains.
3) Evaluation of surveillance and control strategies for infectious diseases.
1) Avian influenza: Predicting epidemiological dynamics in poultry systems; Quantifying between-farm spread processes; Quantifying epidemiological parameters (e.g., cross-protection between subtypes, the relationship between viral load and transmission probability); ;
2) Dengue: Predicting spatio-temporal dynamics; Quantifying effectiveness of mosquito-targeted control strategies; Quantifying the relationship of vector abundance and disease incidence across local and global scales.
3) Lyme disease and babesiosis: Quantifying geographic spread processes in eastern USA
Pepin KM, Marques-Toledo C, Scherer L, Morais MM, Ellis B, Eiras AE. Cost-effectiveness of a novel system of mosquito surveillance and control: MI-dengue. Emerging Infectious Diseases, In Press
Pepin KM, Wang J, Webb CT, Poss M, Hudson PJ, Hong W, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S. Anticipating the prevalence of avian influenza subtypes H9 and H5 in live-bird markets. PLoS One, In Press
George DB, Webb CT, Pepin KM, Savage LT, Antolin MF. Persistence of prairie-dog populations affected by plague. Ecology, In Press
Pepin KM, Wang J, Webb CT, Smith GJ, Poss M, Hudson PJ, Hong W, Zhu H, Riley S, & Guan Y. Multiannual patterns of influenza A transmission in Chinese live-bird market systems. Influenza & Other Respiratory Viruses 2013 7:97.
Pepin KM, VanDalen KK, Mooers NL, Ellis JW, Sullivan HJ, Root JJ, Webb CT, Franklin AB, Shriner SA. Quantification of heterosubtypic immunity between avian influenza subtypes H3N8 and H4N6 in multiple avian host species. Journal of General Virology 2012 93:2575.
Pepin KM, Volkov I, Banavar JR, Wilke CO, & Grenfell BT. Phenotypic Differences in Viral Immune Escape Explained by Linking Within-Host Dynamics to Host-Population Immunity. Journal of Theoretical Biology 2010 265: 501.
Steinmeyer S, Wilke CO, & Pepin KM. Methods of modeling viral disease dynamics across the within- and between-host scales: The impact of virus dose on host population immunity. Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 2010 365: 1931.
Volkov I, Pepin KM, Lloyd-Smith JO Banavar JR & Grenfell BT. Synthesizing within-host and population level selective pressures on viral populations: the impact of adaptive immunity on viral immune escape. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2010 In Press
Lloyd-Smith JO, George D, Pepin KM, Pitzer VE, Pulliam JRC, Dobson AP, Hudson PJ, & Grenfell BT. Epidemic dynamics at the human-animal interface. Science 2009 326:1362.
Pepin KM, Domsic J & McKenna R. Genomic evolution in a virus under specific selection for host recognition. Infection, Genetics and Evolution 2008 8: 825.
Pepin KM & Hanley KA. Density-dependent competitive suppression of sylvatic dengue virus by endemic dengue virus in cultured mosquito cells. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases 2008 8: 821.
Pepin KM & Wichman HA. Experimental evolution and genome sequencing reveal variation in levels of clonal interference in large populations of bacteriophage phiX174. BMC Evolutionary Biology 2008 8: 85.
Pepin KM, Lambeth K & Hanley KA. Asymmetric competitive suppression between strains of dengue virus. BMC Microbiology 2008 8: 28.
Pepin KM & Wichman HA. Variable epistatic effects between mutations at host recognition sites in phiX174 bacteriophage. Evolution 2007 61: 1710.
Gomulkiewicz R, Drown DM, Dybdahl MF, Godsoe W, Nuismer SL, Pepin KM, Ridenhour BJ, Smith CI & Yoder JB. Do’s and Don’ts of testing the geographic mosaic theory of coeveolution. Heredity 2007 98: 249
Pepin KM, Samuel MA, & Wichman HA. Variable pleiotropic effects from mutations at the same locus hamper prediction of fitness from a fitness component. Genetics 2006 172: 2047.
Pepin K, Momose F, Ishida N, & Nagata K. Molecular cloning of horse Hsp90 cDNA and its comparative analysis with other vertebrate Hsp90 sequences. Journal of Veterinary Medical Science 2001 63: 115.
Last updated Jan. 24th, 2013